Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that currently it's just a sum of winning chance across all GAs ending on one day.
In this case entering 20 GAs with 0,05 (5%) chance of winning will show as 100% Probability of Winning Per Day
And that's not true, 20 GAs with 5% chance won't guarantee a win (which is what 100% probability means).
I'm correcting, that's wrong. It looks like your math is really bad. It's not calculated that way in general, it's not calculated that way in this site.
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You can always sacrifice some virgin blood for summoning
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You're incorrect, the site already works the way you're requesting. If you're entered into two giveaways, each with a 50% chance of winning, the site would say the probability of winning is 75%. If the site says you have a 100% chance of winning, you're guaranteed to win. The exceptions would be...
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Why would you assume the probability of winning one giveaway affects the probability of winning another GA?
Also apart from that: looking at the calculations, they wouldn't be correct I'm afraid. Nor would it be better than the current system.
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Why would you assume the probability of winning one giveaway affects the probability of winning another GA?
I don't, I only count how the probability of winning each one giveaway affects the probability of winning anything on a particular day.
Also apart from that: looking at the calculations, they wouldn't be correct I'm afraid. Nor would it be better than the current system.
Can you explain why? I based my logic on the Multiplication Rule, roughly explained here: https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html
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I've been entering a couple of low entry count GAs, and I believe Probability of Winning per Day (PoWpD) often overestimated.
Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that currently it's just a sum of winning chance across all GAs ending on one day.
In this case entering 20 GAs with 0,05 (5%) chance of winning will show as 100% Probability of Winning Per Day
And that's not true, 20 GAs with 5% chance won't guarantee a win (which is what 100% probability means).
A more accurate way to calculate PoWpD would be to calculate daily chance of not winning anything and subtracting it from 1:
PoWpD - daily probability of winning any one gift
PW_n - probality of winning GA number n
PoWpD = 1 - ( (1-PW_1) x (1-PW_2) x (1-PW_3) x ... x (1-PW_n) ) x 100%
So for my example above it would be:
(1- (0,95 x 0,95 x 0,95 x ...0,95)) x 100%= (1-0,95^20) x 100% = (1-0,3565) x 100%= 64,15%
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