Why would you want to inflate your estimated wins?
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I can bet he's cRPG player, he just likes when stats are raising.
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I'm guessing you're not who the penis enlargement ads are targeted at. Cos that's a valid question right there. I have no idea if breast implant ads sound as ludicrous to the fair sex, but it would be a decent approximation.
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It's just a statistic, mind you. Estimated wins have no actual bearing on whether or not you win anything.
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Every time you enter a giveaway it goes up, regardless of whether you win or not. Giveaways with fewer entries will boost it more than giveaways with lots of entries, but they'll both increase the number, however small it may be. It's worth mentioning that it doesn't effect your chances of winning.
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Ehm, not really. You never get a negative chance at winning. Simply, as Monu says, your estimated wins don't increase as much. Of course it's pure speculation if we don't see the actual algorithm, but it'd be very counterintuitive otherwise.
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My estimation has dropped since the feature was launched. The average changes each time you enter a giveaway, and it is indeed true that the bigger the giveaway the lower your overall average.
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Basically, this.
The effect that entering a giveaway has is relative to your preexisting estimated wins. Obviously a person with 0 entries will raise their estimated wins whether they enter a big or small giveaway, whereas a person who has spent most of their time on SG entering giveaways with very few entries has a high estimated win and would have that estimation lowered by entering a giveaway with 5k entries or whatever.
edit: When the feature was revealed I had 6.01 estimated wins and now I have 5.51.
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The number lowered yesterday because it was modified to only take into account closed giveaways. Estimated wins is the sum of all your entered giveaways using the following formula...
SUM(1/MAX(1,(Gift.Entries/Gift.Copies)))
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Great of you to post this, I've had my own "Estimated wins" thing going, and I was wondering on the small fluctuation since this went live on the site. Now it makes perfect sense. Keep up the good work cg!
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There are so many things wrong with what you just said...
So many things...
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You lost me at the "a giveaway with a large amount of entries has a negative chance of winning" part. That really confused me.
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Enter for giveaways. Estimated wins is a flat probability function that works as a fairly basic addition function. The fewer entries the giveaway has, the more it will increase your estimated wins.
When a giveaway ends, divide 1 by the number of entries. That value will be added to your estimated wins.
(So 20 entries = +0.05 whereas 1000 entries = +0.001)
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How can i raise the "Estimated Wins" ?
Thanks
תודה
спасибо
Tack
شكرا
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