With all the capcom bundle and other bundle games being listed on SG my points regenerate super fast but all that does is prove my theory: Im super unlucky.I have even entered for low budget indie games to see if that makes a difference but have the same results.Are you guys having any better luck with winning with the extra entry points generating. Maybe its just me but I dont feel like a trip to the casinos needs to be in my near future.

*There may be orphan keys spread out through this discussion for entertainment purposes

  • Please let everyone know if you claim one and what the game is.
6 years ago*

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Results-based thinking. What is it?

6 years ago
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This comment was deleted 3 weeks ago.

6 years ago
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Just trying to figure out the SG system for picking winners. Whether the amount of games you enter for versus the amount of entries has anything to do with it. Just for my own amusement I guess. Maybe I need a catchier username??

6 years ago
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It's all RNG. It treats some users like a pornographic lover and others it kicks to the street.

6 years ago
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Well the hidden giveaway here is too well hidden

6 years ago*
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Your hidden key is on the discussion so good luck !!!

6 years ago
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Winning 8 games in a month hardly puts you in the unlucky category. It takes some users months to win half as much.

6 years ago
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You won 8 games with less than 2000 entries. It took me more than 3 thousand to win my first game. You're anything but unlucky :)

6 years ago
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Thanks I feel a little better now I thought maybe I just had a black cloud over my head.

6 years ago
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so I just need 3 thousands Entery? LoL :p

6 years ago*
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no, you need thousands of entries into giveaways that have thousands of entries.
Or, you could find giveaways with less entries. I've been in giveaways that had less than 10 entries, in which case the odds of winning are pretty good.

But if you're only entering unrestricted level 0 public giveaways for AAA games, some of those have well over ten thousand entries

6 years ago
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I hardly even find any good giveaways to enter, so I rarely use them. xD

6 years ago
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hm don't expect to win a lot of public giveways, most of them have +500 entries, so you have 1/500 to win.. nowadays most of them have more entries so yeah those odds aren't on your favor.. if you want to win something, you better join private giveways (here on the forum) or private giveway groups.. I won 1.2k ~ giveways only 25 of them were public

6 years ago
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Thanks for that information. I'm rather new to this site and am trying to figure it out. I like the concept and dont mind contributing to the cause so to speak by putting my unused keys on here.

6 years ago
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I mainly enter high-level giveaways, especially for whatever came out of the recent humbebundle. If there's a game I particularly want, I might go lower, but I don't even enter level 0 giveaways anymore. Also, private, group, and whitelist giveaways are the way to go.

Private giveaways are often found in the forums, and have maybe 1/10th the number of entries as public ones. giveaways hidden by a puzzle could have significantly less. A puzzle I recently failed to solve had less than 10 entries.

Whitelist GAs generally have good odds, but the only way to get there is by being a good egg and having people like you.

Group giveaways range from wide open public groups, which can have as many entries as public GAs, to groups created around a common purpose, like Lucky 7, or the Backlog Awareness group. There are also giveaway groups that are more like game-swapping circles, with strict rules on how often you must create a giveaway. You'll figure those out just by spending some time on the forums

6 years ago
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But the points are regenerating faster for all people so your chances are not higher than usually.

6 years ago
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What I meant by that statement was I was able to enter a lot more GAs due to having more points to enter with. Im sure everyone else is trying the same method as well.

6 years ago
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And what Pilda tried to explain to you is that everyone else has more points too, entering more giveaways, "reducing" your chances.

6 years ago
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Also stop entering wishlist only and high point GA's. Mostly the bots win those.

I enter all my wishlist and I KNOW I'll never win those. Glares at all those Resident Evil 0 GA's

6 years ago
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Yeah sorta like the Playerunkown battleground GA this morning. Moore than likely a bot winner.

6 years ago
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Your Deus Ex:Mankind Divided win suggests otherwise ;)

6 years ago
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Ok, I see that I misphrased that.
I never expect to win. Sorry. My fault.

6 years ago
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Not sure who you are looking at but I have not won that game LOL.

6 years ago
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I replied to BHTrellis ;)
The standard layout is a bit confusing, check out the rhSGST script

6 years ago
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Yes I see now. I thought you had information that I didnt know LOL. Thanks

6 years ago
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I have even entered for low budget indie games

unless Im missing the point here...which might very well be...that statement is not gonna earn you a lot of friends here
I try to only enter GAs that are either on my wishlist or look interesting to me...havent run out of points in a while

6 years ago
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Sorry let me rephrase this. I entered lower cost requiring less points indie game GAs. Im definitely am not implying that all Indie games are low budget. I actually enjoy a lot of Indie titles.

6 years ago
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You are not implying that all Indie games are low budget, you are implying that you enter stuff you consider trash just to win, and never play them. And this, is not really a way to make friend in the forum for some folks.

6 years ago
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That was short lived. Im back to only entering what I will play. It was a moment of weakness.

6 years ago
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It happen to more than half newcomer I think, so you are far from alone in this situation ^^

6 years ago
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one of my earliest wins was one I didn't realize I entered and had no interest in, but at the time a win was a win and I was dang happy about it. Nowadays, I have no problem telling the GA creator that they should reroll if I don't think I'll be playing the game any time soon (if I even enter such a GA)

6 years ago
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Try entering stuff that is region restricted, level restricted, low entry, and short duration. Those are your best bets.

6 years ago
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you aren't unlucky.

instead you would be lucky to win in a 2000+ entries public lv0-3 ga. ┐(´ー`)┌

6 years ago
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Here is a random key for someone to grab. Not sure what it is so be surprised like me!!
QEB2H-3L7HE-2HN8? . The ? = the first letter of the animal that is opposite of a dog for a home pet.

6 years ago
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Taken

6 years ago
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There is another key if you havent noticed yet.

6 years ago
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Thanks for warning me, but already taken aswell :) Thanks though

6 years ago
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Someone must have claimed it and not posted they did. Try Y28PW-5N804-TLNW? ?= The last letter of the alphabet.

6 years ago
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It was Space Beret.
Thank you very much :)

6 years ago
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You're welcome

6 years ago
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I feel your pain :) It's been since december 2016 that i won something. Although i have to admit, i only join my wishlist giveaways so that diminishes my chances somewhat.

6 years ago
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You win a lot more public giveaway than I did, so I would say you are actually pretty lucky. My experience is that if it's public, especially low level, the chance to win is basically zero. You should try to join some groups if you want better chances. You can try out Playing Appreciated if you like playing your wins, for example.

6 years ago
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And since you guys have been so willing to watch me moan about not winning that much here is another random key i have laying around that is a mystery. 9YHXG-F58MH-I6C?0. The ? = the first letter of a small stringed instrument played with a bow.

6 years ago
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https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/personal/community - you can see here whether you have been unlucky. The second chart mathematically and statistically counts your chances in every giveaway you entered. You can see if you have won more or less gifts than mathematically estimated.

6 years ago
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Thanks Im only down by 2.8. gifts so Im ok I guess.

6 years ago
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I have won 11 less gifts than estimated since I first joined. But that's OK.
You can increase your chances by selecting giveaways. You are level 4, so you might want to focus on Lvl4+ giveaways. The higher the level, the less entries. The less entries, the bigger your chances.

6 years ago
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If you claim a key in the discussion please let everyone know and what game it is. Thanks

6 years ago
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I always have the same first question whenever anyone posts one of these threads:

What's your luck-per-month at? Just to help give us an idea whether you're even statistically unlucky or not. A lot of people tend to overlook how even a few gifts can be very lucky if they're entering giveaways with thousands of entries everytime.

(if you're not sure to find it, go over to the points area and click the down area -> my stats -> look for the luck per month graph, and it'll be the number at the end of the paragraph)

Oops, nevermind, I just saw the post like two above where someone already asked

6 years ago
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Yes Im only down 2.8 gifts compared to what I should be. I really wanted to make this thread to spread some orphan keys and make people work for them by watching me moan LOL.

6 years ago
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4 month Im in. But every HB I loose :(
Looks like no one here knows about the difference between mathematical expectation and theory of probability.

6 years ago
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But you are lucky!

6 years ago
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Here is another mystery orphan key for your enjoyment ( or displeasure). XPACG-XFV2K-RM8Z? ? = the first letter of the name of a 25 cent coin in the United States.

6 years ago
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Thank you for Data Hacker: Reboot! :)

6 years ago
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Here is another one YCCQJ-5DKT8-25FK? ? = The first letter of the company Steve Jobs was founder of. Hint: not mac

6 years ago
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got that one...thanks
Asteroid Bounty Hunter

6 years ago
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And here comes another. NLC44-7DZVV-G8C9? ?= The same character as the one to the left of it.

6 years ago
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!!!
I can't believe it.

It... activated!
I... i... i can't believe it!
I mean, here and elsewhere i have seen key drops as fast as 3 minutes since they were dropped an they were always taken. Always.
Ninjas, bots i have no idea.

And this time it... is this some kind of sorcery? Is this real life?
Or is it just fantasy?

6 years ago
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Its all of the above actually.

6 years ago
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I've actually been very lucky lately, 5 wins in the past 3 weeks. Not sure if it's the new point generation algorithm, or just the old random number generator.

Joining groups, and being fortunate enough to be added to some folks' Whitelists, is probably the best way to win on this site.

6 years ago
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Congrats on your success and thanks for the info.

6 years ago
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Closed 6 years ago by wawilojr.