I did not win with more than 60% chance. No one among my Steam friends won anything. They also had 40 to 60% chance. Who won all these? How many games should one give to win something back from Steamgifts these days?
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People. People won all these. Even with 60% chance of winning, you still have 40% chance of not winning. The number of games you give away have 0 impact on the number of games you win. If you want to give away games to get to higher levels so you have better chances, you're probably better off just using that money to buy the games you want.
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I guess he meant something like Karma. The more you give away, the more positive you would get back etc... It's also nice to give away and make people happy. But when you see people resurfacing who haven't been on SG for years, or only joined SG, winning most of these giveaways it kinda stings a bit.
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It's about luck, there's no such thing as karma. Someone can be playing the lottery for years and never win anything, then someone else plays for the first time and wins millions.
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Yeah you are right, It is all about luck. We just like to think (or hope) otherwise.
For example even having entered 5 WL giveaways with 20 or less entries, I didn't win anything while someone else won 2 of the same WL giveaways. That happened to me only once 2 years ago, winning from the same person at the same time lol.
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I agree with gsrafael01. But I want to add something. Chance calculations at SG are flawed. I remember not winning a game with 100% chance.
Let's say you entered four giveaways with four entries each. SG calculates like this:
0.25+0.25+0.25+0.25=1 (100%)
But your actual chance to win is:
1-(0.75x0.75x0.75x0.75)=0.68 (68%)
If you enter many giveaways with many entries your winning chance gets quite lower than what shows on SG's stat page.
Apparently I was quite wrong. I run some tests and math doesn't add up. Sorry for the misinformation people :P
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And a very beautiful Xmas gift it is, congrats (to you, and to the gifter for her choice) ^_^
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Apparently I was quite wrong. I run some tests and math doesn't add up. Sorry for the misinformation.
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Well I'll delete my comments then rather than go through the drama of agreeing with somebody who has admitted they are wrong, but personally I think something is still significantly off as I've seen clearly impossible chances to win.
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Mmm, I sensed that something was strange with the calculation of winning chance, it got high too easily... But I didn't think it was so basic (the calculation, and the error). Of course, probably a correct calculation might require too much resources?
Tbh I never investigated it, I wasn't so interested. I look at it only in a qualitative way, not a quantitative one.
As a consequence, also the expected number of wins will be flawed, and many people will think they've won far less GAs than they should.
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Yeah, that's true. You can still see chance of winning for each individual giveaway with some SG community script, forgot which one.
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Apparently I was quite wrong. I run some tests and math doesn't add up. Sorry for the misinformation.
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O_o If that's the case, that's a really bad bug.... And kind of disheartening to see. It makes us question the validity of the "random" chance of winning. I recall there were times when the number of winners were less than the number of game copies even though there were more than enough entries. It indicates that the most fundamental and essential aspect of the site (randomized winning) isn't functioning as expected.
edit: cg clarified that the probability is calculated correctly in this thread
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You're right it was a mistake on my part. Today I have a 16% chance to win. I entered a giveaway with 5 entries and now it shows 33% not 36%. Though I still wonder why I didn't win a game with a 100% chance.
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that's a real mystery.... Perhaps that game was deleted before it ended? If you remember which day it was you can look at it in the list of your entered giveaways.
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That was quite a while ago. I don't think I will be able to solve that mystery :(
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The % is probably rounded up to the higher number.
So your chance could have been 99,51% and it was shown as 100%. Allowing wiggle room for your bad luck to strike.
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Ooh, now that is a nice theory. Also quite a sad one :p
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It makes us question the validity of the "random" chance of winning
In reality I don't think there's any huge bias on the chance of winning any single GAs, but only in the calculation of that graph (so, anyway, it's not a problem: you don't look at that graph, you're happier :P).
Of course, it is clear that it's IMPOSSIBLE to have a really random choice of the winner: as the random number used to choose him is given by an algorithm, and an algorithm follows logic steps, it doesn't know randomness.
But this is not a problem, too: there are many algorithms that, even if do not provide really random numbers, do provide numbers random enough for our use.
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I'm not questioning the use of pseudorandom for picking a winner. I'm just saying if the site couldn't do a simple probability calculation correctly, who knows what other things isn't correct too. Picking winner being just one of them, given that other time when not enough winners were chosen, there was something obviously wrong with the algorithm.
But anyway, it has since been shown that the probability calculation was correct,
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How do you see probability of winning on a day again?
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LOL, thats true. No friends of mine won a single game with over 60% chance in winning in some giveaways.
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No wins, ohh well. Nothing I'm not used to XD.
Happy Holidays!
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Ouch. All that to only get a lump of coal. Oh well. Congrats to those who won something.
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No wins for me. But I hope the 2 winners of my boxes have fun with their gifts.
I got some nice stuff from my family so it's all good.
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There were flaws but generally a great event. Thank you for the effort. Hope you received a wonderful gift yourself. :)
Christmas Bump! Merry Christmas to ALL ^__^
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nice stuff, but next time please add a filter in the available boxes with "game hidden on steamgifts". between people entering to +1 or idle and trolls putting a 1-cent game for a christmas event, i lost all interest in this after some days. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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+1 Can't believe I actually had to BL people during holidays :/.
And most was done and started by one particular user aka "The true Grinch who stole Christmas".
Thank god CG decided to let BL be active again, they were really needed.
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It was disabled? I must have missed that, or I was just really lucky the day(s) when it was not there, as I managed to dodge all the boxes from the user who made 4% of all gift boxes...
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Yeah you could BL people but you could still open a gift box if you blacklisted the creator after the event started. It was changed only 2 days later to click "Open a gift box" after which a message would pop up that you can't open it.
I had already opened 4 - 5 troll boxes by then lol. XD
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No, your giveaways are always awesome! Which is why you are one of my bluehearts 💙! But I did think your event Grinch theme fit the comment here which is why I used it! ^_^ Not that I would have time or wits to have solved it haha
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I just moved from last page forward and saw some nice games...
Did not win anything what's not sad at all looking at all the great games I won this year.
I just hope, that my winner will play.
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Thank you very much for this event and thank you all the contributors!
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That was nice :)
Happy Holidays!
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I entered 16 giveaways out of 108 I opened. Didn't win anything today. :(
All had only from 200 to 600 entries. Had more than 50% chance of winning.
Was a bit disappointed I didn't win anything, hopefully Lady Luck can still smile upon me during the remaining Holiday time and let me win smth I really want.
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Well if you take for example a giveaway at 200 entries then it seems to me that you would have to enter 200 giveaways exactly like it to win one of them (on average). So cut that in half and it's roughly 100 giveaways for 50/50 chance (assuming they all had the best case scenario odds in your example) but you said you only entered 16. It doesn't seem like your math adds up unless I am missing something?
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Yeah but It's calculating everything I entered for on 25th. So also calculating public and WL giveaways I entered with less than 20 entries and multiple copies. Funny enough, another person won 2 of the same WL giveaways by same person :D.
Wasn't needed for you to do the math really ;).
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While I would never complain about Lady Luck here (she has been kind to me), I recall two giveaways that had a total of 2 entries (that is including mine). I did not win either one! LOL! And other times I won a giveaway with thousands of entries. You just never know!:)
Oh! Happy New Year!:)
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I think I had a giveaway with (can only guess) 10 copies and 12 entries and lost. That's even worse ^^
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Pretty cool event though a DLC filter for the boxes would have been nice since in most cases ownership can't be detected properly.
Also it would be neat to be able to go back and have the ability to open all of the boxes now even though the event & giveaways are over. I'm curious what were in some of the boxes that I didn't open.
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Really nice event, I loved seeing all the box designs people came up with, would like if it could come back next year ;)
Also I managed to win something (actually I somehow managed to win 7 GAs in the last 24 hours), so I got my cherry on top of it :D
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That was a fun event, much appreciated!
And I agree with what some above mentioned, that it would have been nice with a DLC filter (and a filter that blocks out collections, I got a bunch of Shadow of Mordor GOTY giveaways in the boxes I opened :P )
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Yeah I think the Shadow of Mordor GOTY Edition is bugged. That's why I avoided opening LOTR-related boxes looking for Shadow of War.
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It was not bugged, the collection contains DLC that SG could not "see", so SG treats it as "not owned"
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How do you know who won their respective giveaways?
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For example in this GA https://www.steamgifts.com/giveaway/kNdyE/metrico on the left side you can see "Winners" link.
Follow this link and after winner mark gift as recieved/not recieved you will see user name
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A great event, actually missed it thinking it would run up to New Years but will gladly take part in a next one
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Oh no, I was continuing to open 5 boxes each day, but now they are gone :-(
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Soo, which was the most opened box?
We (hmm, I?) want to see the most successful wrappings! =P
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The first ones posted were the most opened i guess. Most of the other giveaways just got lost in the mess.
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I was wondering that too...have my fingers crossed! :)
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Wow, nice. I read the whole first page of comments before skipping to the end, only to realize this is a year old thread. No, please, no for all the commenter's reasons stated on the first page, don't bring this back!
PS, thanks for necro'ing the thread. I thought they had returned and was getting myself ready for another season of dealing with frustrating crap-box opens... No offense to SG or you, but it was a headache with the mountain amount of crap gifts and I gave up after a few days of opening anything, as nice of a sentiment the whole thing was. I don't want to tempt myself with that situation again.
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One more spam message in cg's inbox to revive this event this holiday season.
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Only if we can address those 1p asset flips, for lack of a better term. Most of what i remember was unboxing those.
Since everything is restricted, that's also an ownership problem
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I'm likely one of the few who didn't mind those giveaways, as I was more interested in the creativity shown in the boxes people made. Some of them were simply outstanding.
However, I can certainly see how others might be irked by particular people trolling the event. Perhaps a lower limit on game value could help with that. 5P or something like that might be reasonable (probably still won't stop those who are truly intent on trolling), yet not so much that it would dissuade people from taking part in the event.
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That's where blacklisting comes in handy. Every time I encountered an asset flip concealed in the wrapping of a much better game, I employed it along with a "temp xmas" tag that I removed after the event. That cut down on the troll boxes quite a bit, though I do agree that a lower limit would also be helpful.
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I feared reverse BL with that solution, some of which still exist today, sadly.
But we still lack a solution to owned restricted games, which sg cannot scan for.
The numbers are increasing by the day.
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if box's come back make sure they have like a 10p min limit. those box's last year were like opening presents x-mas morning and getting nothing but socks and underwear.
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I mean, receiving a fresh pair of socks and underwear is pretty nice.You can then throw away all old and dirty ones.
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And do not allow DLC and bundle entering this gift box.
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There are people that would be really happy to have socks and underwear. One man trash is another man treasure.
Undertale is <10p game for example.
Some people are trolling by making boxes, but don't think that cutting thousands of games because of arbitrary reasons is a good idea. Someone may have only enough money to buy bundle with 5 - 9p games to make a box, we should not cut them off from the event.
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Hi SG,
Happy holidays! We have a holiday event starting now and ending on December 25. The event allows users to create custom gift boxes which can be opened by others in the community to reveal giveaways. To get started, follow the below link to browse all of the available gift boxes, or to create one of your own.
https://www.steamgifts.com/happy-holidays
How it works
Creating a gift box and giveaway
Opening gift boxes
No spoilers. Please do not share what games you found or what was contained inside of a gift box.
If you have any questions, please ask. I'm looking forward to seeing all the gift box designs. I'll add a few throughout the month with Steam gift cards and games as well. Have fun!
Updates
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